2022’s Academy Awards nominee frontrunner might just be Belfast

Although Hollywood’s awards season is a common one, it doesn’t always go the same way every year. Numerous smaller awards are given out to the nominees. This helps determine which films are in contention. The studios have aggressive, behind-the-scenes marketing campaigns. They use everything from strategically placed billboards to extravagant parties. It’s a constant up-and-down game looking for the end result of an Oscar, the prize which matters above all others.

Producers Guild of America (PGA) is the latest organization to make the Academy’s table. As the PGA helpfully notes in its own press release, its awards are “are often a bellwether for the Oscars.” Since the PGA’s inception, the PGA says, “the PGA has predicted 22 of the past 32 winners of the Academy Award for Best Picture.” That’s around 68 percent, not too shabby.

Awards season in the midst of the pandemic only increased the disparities it usually faces. The nominees are seldom the movies that most people have not seen. Two movies were nominated by the PGA Awards for their success last year. Don’t Look Up Dune. Beyond the planet Arrakis and the meteor, there are movies such as CODA, King Richard, Tick, Tick, Boom West Side Story You have not been publicly credited, but you hope to get noticed as the awards are handed out.

Photo: Rob Youngson / Focus Features

If there’s a frontrunner this year, it’s Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. Taking place during very violent time and place in history, 1960s Northern Ireland, the movie takes a lighter approach to the conflict known as The Troubles than, say, Steve McQueen’s Hunger or Paul Greengrass’ Bloody Sunday. Instead, it tells the story of Buddy, 9 years old from a Protestant household. The LA Times called it “the sweetest movie about the Troubles you’ll ever see.”

It’s the rare personal movie from Branagh, who is best known for his Shakespeare adaptations like 1993’s There is so much to be said about nothing Keanu Reeves and Denzel Washington star. Films that tell a story about a person in the midst of dramatic historical events are cherished by The Academy. Forrest Gump You can find more information here Argo You can find more information here Green Book.

It’s also sweeping up the pre-Oscars awards on the festival circuit. Belfast has won the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, the Heartland Film Festival’s Truly Moving Picture Award, the Newport Beach Film Festival’s Best Narrative Feature, the American Film Institute’s Special Award, and the National Review Board named it’s Top Film, but somewhat confusingly also named Licorice PizzaThis is the Best Film.

BelfastThe film has been nominated by numerous guilds throughout Hollywood. It’s nominated for Outstanding Cast Performance by the Screen Actor’s Guild alongside an individual nomination for Catríona Balfe for Female Actress in a Supporting Role. Branagh himself is nominated for Outstanding Directorial Achievement by the Director’s Guild, and now the PGAs as well.

Familiar names pop up throughout these nominations, like Jane Campion’s Dog Power and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. However, Belfast is in the catbird’s seat in terms of momentum heading into the final leg of Oscar fever.

What does this amount to? It’s hard to say. As anyone who watches closely knows, upsets do occur. Moonlight Oder Parasite The Academy could tell you. It is possible that the Academy will make a decision. Belfast It is too similar to a semi-biographical black-and-white story, which was awarded Best Picture. Roma. The sweeping vision could be honored by it. DuneThe coming-of age movie in color: Licorice Pizza, Or, you can add your final praises to crowd-pleasing Spider-Man has no way home This is unlikely considering that the award was almost entirely excluded from other smaller ones.

The Academy Awards is in constant flux. It has always been frustrating, but also insightful and determined to remain relevant. Last year’s Awards saw a brutal 58 percent drop in viewership, although that data didn’t take into account viewers who watched on streaming platforms.

However, no matter how many people watch the Academy Awards, it can change Hollywood’s culture and give them credibility. It’s hard to imagine Netflix picking up Squid GameFor instance, it is possible to do so without Parasite’s victory, something the show’s creator Hwang Dong-hyuk has acknowledged.

Love them, hate them, or ignore them, the Oscars look at movies beyond their box office numbers and can’t be reduced into aggregated data like Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic have done with reviews. They stand alone, a relic of past standards, but people wouldn’t keep fighting over the Oscars if there wasn’t a reason.